In March, the New York Post's Joel Sherman correctly predicted that the Mets would trade a core star at the deadline for a top pitching prospect. Only Sherman thought it would be Jose Reyes for the Reds' Homer Bailey. Instead, on the day the Carlos Beltran deal became official, the new-look Mets scored nine runs off of Bailey.
Who would have predicted last spring that the Mets would be able to use Beltran, still trying to come back from knee surgery, to land a top pitching prospect? That the debt-ridden Mets would be able to throw in four million dollars in the deal? And that the Mets would hold on to Reyes with increased hope of re-signing him?
Almost every sportswriter last spring thought Reyes was a goner. ESPN's Buster Olney thought that the "Mets will seek ‘power arms,’ in a deal for Reyes, and says the Giants will be interested."
Reyes may yet leave the Mets. There is no guarantee that Wheeler will pan out. A few years ago, many considered Bailey one of the top two pitching prospects in baseball. The other one was Phil Hughes. While it's too early to write off Bailey or Hughes, both have been disappointments so far relative to expectations.
Beltran, underrated and underappreciated as a Met, is irreplaceable with the current roster.
But Beltran, 34 with bad knees, is not part of the Mets' future, especially as a Scott Boras client. Even if the Mets had no money issues, should they have given Beltran the kind of money and years Boras will demand?
Madoff or no Madoff, it would have still made sense to do what the Red Sox did with stars like Pedro Martinez and Johnny Damon - let them go while they still had something left, but bring back top prospects with which they could retool. With the supplemental pick the Red Sox received for Pedro, they drafted Clay Buchholz. One of the picks they got for Damon turned out to be Daniel Bard.
If the Mets had kept Beltran, they would not have gotten any draft picks. But getting a top prospect was even better. As risky as prospects are, draft picks are even riskier. Better to get a top-ten pick from a couple of years ago, who has had a chance to show in professional ball that his reputation is deserved. Someone like Wheeler, the sixth pick in 2009.
But if Reyes had been traded at the deadline, it would not have mattered how many Zack Wheelers the Mets got back. The Mets would have been in full rebuilding mode.
Last year, the Padres almost won the NL West. Then they traded Adrian Gonzalez in the prime of his career. The Padres supposedly got a great haul of prospects from the Red Sox. Maybe those prospects will pan out one day. But today, the Padres are in last place, 14 games under .500, while Gonzalez is a top contender for AL MVP.
If the Padres get lucky, Anthony Rizzo, the first base prospect obtained from the Red Sox in the Gonzalez trade, will turn out to be another Gonzalez. But then, as he approaches free agency, the Padres will have to trade him.
This spring, the Mets looked like they were turning into the Padres - a low-budget team with little hope of contending on a regular basis. The future is still uncertain, but with both Reyes and Wheeler in the organization, it looks a lot brighter than it did just a few months ago.
Showing posts with label Carlos Beltran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Carlos Beltran. Show all posts
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Friday, July 15, 2011
Mets' First Half: From Clawback to Claw
At the start of the season, the Mets appeared to be going down the drain - both on and off the field. At the All-Star break, things look better - both on and off the field. But is optimism justified, or merely a product of lowered expectations?
The dominant Met story last winter was Irving Picard's clawback lawsuit hanging over the franchise. As a result, Jose Reyes looked to be a goner.
As for the players, Johan Santana was out indefinitely, Carlos Beltran was a part-time player who could no longer play centerfield and Jose Reyes had to prove he could stay healthy.
Now Reyes has come back stronger than ever, and the trade of Francisco Rodriguez increases the odds of Reyes remaining a Met. The future remains uncertain, but at least the outlook is brighter than in the spring. And who would have predicted that Beltran would play in almost every game and make the All-Star team?
Along with the trade of K-Rod, another off-the-field bright spot was the announcement that David Einhorn will invest $200 million in the franchise and become a minority shareholder.
However, Fred Wilpon's ill-advised comments denigrating Reyes, Wright and Beltran and warning of huge losses and payroll cuts temper hope that the franchise is headed back in the right direction. The clawback lawsuit is still out there. And Einhorn's deal has not been finalized yet.
While it would be nice to eventually begin a Mets' half-season in review without mentioning finances, it would be even nicer to not have to mention misdiagnosed injuries to star players. Unfortunately, David Wright played for a few weeks with a back fracture and Ike Davis was told to wear a protective boot that ended up making his ankle worse.
But, as mentioned above, Beltran has been healthy and Reyes was healthy before getting hurt earlier this month. Reyes is due back soon and the injury is said to be minor, though with the Mets' history, we won't know for sure until he is back on the field.
While the Mets have had bad injury luck with Wright and Davis, the same can't be said for Chris Young, who was the Mets' best starter at the beginning of the season before he went down for the year. The only reason the Mets were able to sign Young in the first place was that he was such an injury risk. Nobody could reasonably expect both Young and Chris Capuano to make it through the season healthy and productive. And the severity of Santana's injury makes any expectations for him a longshot.
Capuano, though, has been a pleasant surprise, and Sandy Alderson also came through with Rule 5 pickup Pedro Beato. Scott Hairston has had some dramatic homers off the bench and as a backup.
Alderson did not do as well with the other Rule 5, Brad Emaus, who quickly showed he didn't deserve the second base job. Blaine Boyer also didn't make it out of April. D.J. Carrasco was sent down, but did return.
Justin Turner has been a good addition, but Alderson can't take credit for him - Omar Minaya acquired Turner last year.
While the Mets hitting has been better than expected, this remains a punchless team without Wright and Davis. And Jason Bay has cooled off again after his recent hot streak, renewing fears that he will never get his act together at the plate as a Met.
The pitching has also been better than expected, with the starters rebounding from a slow start with a strong last few weeks. The bullpen has also been solid.
Of course, the main component of the bullpen was just traded, and the number 3 hitter (Beltran) is likely to be next.
With ownership in turmoil and a dispirited fan base, it would be easy for the team to give up hope, as they appeared to do the last couple of years. But under new manager Terry Collins, the Mets display a spirit not seen in some time around here. The hitters have even started doing their version of the "claw" when they reach base. Collins' infusion of a more positive attitude has some talking about him as a candidate for Manager of the Year.
But Collins has also benefited from the greatly lowered expectations. Last year, Jerry Manuel's Mets were eight games over .500 at the break. They finished 79-83 and Manuel lost his job.
If, as seems likely, the Mets trade Beltran, 79 wins might be optimistic. Not to mention that the Mets currently have no proven closer, which would seem to be a necessity for a team that plays lots of close, low-scoring games.
Still, under Alderson and Collins, there is a lot more reason for hope than there was under the old regime, both for the rest of this year and for the future. It doesn't look like there will be meaningful games in September, but there will be meaningful developments. What will the Mets get for Beltran if he's traded? Will they make other trades for prospects? Will Einhorn finalize his deal? Can Johan make it back? (I have a bad feeling about Ike, so I'm not including him in this list.)
So here's to a second half with more talk of claw than clawback. Let's Go Mets!
The dominant Met story last winter was Irving Picard's clawback lawsuit hanging over the franchise. As a result, Jose Reyes looked to be a goner.
As for the players, Johan Santana was out indefinitely, Carlos Beltran was a part-time player who could no longer play centerfield and Jose Reyes had to prove he could stay healthy.
Now Reyes has come back stronger than ever, and the trade of Francisco Rodriguez increases the odds of Reyes remaining a Met. The future remains uncertain, but at least the outlook is brighter than in the spring. And who would have predicted that Beltran would play in almost every game and make the All-Star team?
Along with the trade of K-Rod, another off-the-field bright spot was the announcement that David Einhorn will invest $200 million in the franchise and become a minority shareholder.
However, Fred Wilpon's ill-advised comments denigrating Reyes, Wright and Beltran and warning of huge losses and payroll cuts temper hope that the franchise is headed back in the right direction. The clawback lawsuit is still out there. And Einhorn's deal has not been finalized yet.
While it would be nice to eventually begin a Mets' half-season in review without mentioning finances, it would be even nicer to not have to mention misdiagnosed injuries to star players. Unfortunately, David Wright played for a few weeks with a back fracture and Ike Davis was told to wear a protective boot that ended up making his ankle worse.
But, as mentioned above, Beltran has been healthy and Reyes was healthy before getting hurt earlier this month. Reyes is due back soon and the injury is said to be minor, though with the Mets' history, we won't know for sure until he is back on the field.
While the Mets have had bad injury luck with Wright and Davis, the same can't be said for Chris Young, who was the Mets' best starter at the beginning of the season before he went down for the year. The only reason the Mets were able to sign Young in the first place was that he was such an injury risk. Nobody could reasonably expect both Young and Chris Capuano to make it through the season healthy and productive. And the severity of Santana's injury makes any expectations for him a longshot.
Capuano, though, has been a pleasant surprise, and Sandy Alderson also came through with Rule 5 pickup Pedro Beato. Scott Hairston has had some dramatic homers off the bench and as a backup.
Alderson did not do as well with the other Rule 5, Brad Emaus, who quickly showed he didn't deserve the second base job. Blaine Boyer also didn't make it out of April. D.J. Carrasco was sent down, but did return.
Justin Turner has been a good addition, but Alderson can't take credit for him - Omar Minaya acquired Turner last year.
While the Mets hitting has been better than expected, this remains a punchless team without Wright and Davis. And Jason Bay has cooled off again after his recent hot streak, renewing fears that he will never get his act together at the plate as a Met.
The pitching has also been better than expected, with the starters rebounding from a slow start with a strong last few weeks. The bullpen has also been solid.
Of course, the main component of the bullpen was just traded, and the number 3 hitter (Beltran) is likely to be next.
With ownership in turmoil and a dispirited fan base, it would be easy for the team to give up hope, as they appeared to do the last couple of years. But under new manager Terry Collins, the Mets display a spirit not seen in some time around here. The hitters have even started doing their version of the "claw" when they reach base. Collins' infusion of a more positive attitude has some talking about him as a candidate for Manager of the Year.
But Collins has also benefited from the greatly lowered expectations. Last year, Jerry Manuel's Mets were eight games over .500 at the break. They finished 79-83 and Manuel lost his job.
If, as seems likely, the Mets trade Beltran, 79 wins might be optimistic. Not to mention that the Mets currently have no proven closer, which would seem to be a necessity for a team that plays lots of close, low-scoring games.
Still, under Alderson and Collins, there is a lot more reason for hope than there was under the old regime, both for the rest of this year and for the future. It doesn't look like there will be meaningful games in September, but there will be meaningful developments. What will the Mets get for Beltran if he's traded? Will they make other trades for prospects? Will Einhorn finalize his deal? Can Johan make it back? (I have a bad feeling about Ike, so I'm not including him in this list.)
So here's to a second half with more talk of claw than clawback. Let's Go Mets!
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Why Are Mets Promoting Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran for All-Star Game?
Just got an email from mets.com: REYES, BELTRAN NEED YOUR VOTES! Yeah, that's the way to cheer up a fan base - tell them to support players that may not even be in Met uniforms by the All-Star Game.
Maybe Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran would have more votes if their owner hadn't publicly criticized them last week.
Perhaps Fred Wilpon can make it up to Reyes by voting for him - just so long as he doesn't get Carl Crawford vote totals.
And Wilpon can vote for Beltran, but fill out multiple ballots with other outfielders so Beltran only gets 65-70% of his support.
The one thing we won't see from the Mets is truth in marketing:
Vote for Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran - increase their trade value!
Vote for Reyes and Beltran - it may be years before another Met has any hope of being voted onto the team!
Enjoy these Met All-Star performances while you can - starting in 2012, the Mets will only get someone on the team because every team has to have an All-Star. (But at least Justin Turner will be able to tell his grandkids he was an All-Star.)
I'd love to vote for Reyes - to sign a new contract with the Mets. As for Beltran, I vote for him to find a team that appreciates him.
In the end, many fans, including this one, will be voting with their wallets. And the exit polls on that score are looking pretty grim.
Perhaps the person most in favor of the Mets' latest dubious marketing ploy is incoming investor David Einhorn. ESPN's Adam Rubin suggests that Einhorn may be counting on the team to tank financially so that he can eventually take it over.
And a good way to make Met fans even angrier is to ask them to cast their All-Star votes for Reyes and Beltran - to think of them as the stars they are, just as ownership is no longer able or willing to pay for stars.
Maybe Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran would have more votes if their owner hadn't publicly criticized them last week.
Perhaps Fred Wilpon can make it up to Reyes by voting for him - just so long as he doesn't get Carl Crawford vote totals.
And Wilpon can vote for Beltran, but fill out multiple ballots with other outfielders so Beltran only gets 65-70% of his support.
The one thing we won't see from the Mets is truth in marketing:
Vote for Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran - increase their trade value!
Vote for Reyes and Beltran - it may be years before another Met has any hope of being voted onto the team!
Enjoy these Met All-Star performances while you can - starting in 2012, the Mets will only get someone on the team because every team has to have an All-Star. (But at least Justin Turner will be able to tell his grandkids he was an All-Star.)
I'd love to vote for Reyes - to sign a new contract with the Mets. As for Beltran, I vote for him to find a team that appreciates him.
In the end, many fans, including this one, will be voting with their wallets. And the exit polls on that score are looking pretty grim.
Perhaps the person most in favor of the Mets' latest dubious marketing ploy is incoming investor David Einhorn. ESPN's Adam Rubin suggests that Einhorn may be counting on the team to tank financially so that he can eventually take it over.
And a good way to make Met fans even angrier is to ask them to cast their All-Star votes for Reyes and Beltran - to think of them as the stars they are, just as ownership is no longer able or willing to pay for stars.
Monday, May 23, 2011
Fred Wilpon: Steinbrenner Without the Success
I am not a fan of George Steinbrenner, but he did resurrect the Yankee brand and bring multiple titles to the Bronx. However, Fred Wilpon's Steinbrenner-type comments on several of his stars in the New Yorker betray a mindset that won't result in any titles and could further damage the Mets' image.
The most successful big-market teams use their payroll advantage to overpay some players. The Yankees, with their $200 million payroll, can land a CC Sabathia by giving him tens of millions of dollars more than any other team. A.J. Burnett got a contract that seemed crazy at the time and seems crazier now. But the signings of Sabathia and Burnett, along with Mark Teixeira (who appears to have gotten market value), produced a World Series title for the Yankees in their first season.
The Red Sox and the Phillies have had plenty of questionable signings- John Lackey and Raul Ibanez, just to name two recent ones. Cliff Lee is 32 with a five-year contract. What are the odds that he will be great all five years?
But the willingness of the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies to spend big on several players, knowing that not all of them will justify their investment, that most if not all will offer diminishing returns over the life of their long contracts, results in these teams being perennial contenders.
The Mets have shown all too often that simply spending lots of money is no guarantee of success. But they have also shown that overpaying for stars can quickly bring a team to the brink of the World Series.
The Mets won 71 games in 2004. Over the next two offseasons, they signed Pedro Martinez, Carlos Beltran and Billy Wagner and traded for Carlos Delgado. In 2006, the Mets won 97 games.
Beltran finished fourth in MVP voting that season and Delgado finished twelfth. Wagner was sixth in Cy Young voting. Pedro made the All-Star team in 2006 before he got hurt.
Combining these expensive pieces with another acquisition, Paul Lo Duca, and homegrown stars Wright and Reyes (who both were top 10 in MVP voting in 2006) got the Mets to Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS.
Many Met fans probably agree with Wilpon that the Beltran signing didn't pay off in the long run. As much as I like Pedro, his signing was not a success - he was only healthy for a year and a half out of four. Both Wagner and Delgado saw their Met tenures cut short by injuries.
One could argue that all four of these players failed to return full value on their contracts. But thanks to this combination of players, the Mets were a top contender for three seasons - 2006-8.
Say what you will about Beltran, but the Mets would not have been a contender in those years without him.
And Fred Wilpon regrets signing him.
Beltran is a Scott Boras client who probably wanted to leave the Mets even before the latest mess. The Mets are unlikely to retain him at anything approaching a reasonable value.
But Reyes is a much different case. The Mets may well have to overpay for him, but what the Mets consistently fail to realize is that it's better to overpay for a great player than try to save money by signing a lesser light to a still-big contract.
Two years ago, there were a couple of power-hitting left fielders on the free agent market. The Mets got Jason Bay for $66 million while the Cardinals got Matt Holliday for $120 million. Holliday didn't seem to be twice as good as Bay, so it looked like the Mets got a good deal. But as of now, Bay is almost worthless, while Holliday is a perennial MVP candidate on a pennant contender.
After the 2008 season, the Mets might have signed Derek Lowe for $60 million. Instead, they signed Oliver Perez for $36 million. Lowe has not been that great with the Braves and this year he has been charged with a DUI. But Lowe won 31 games with the Braves in 2009-10. During those years, Perez won three.
If the Mets had spent more money on Lowe instead of less on Perez, things could have been a lot different the last two seasons.
Yes, the 2011 Mets show the perils of overpaying too many players. But if you're going to overpay anyone, Reyes and Wright, two regular All-Stars when healthy who are still under 30, are a good place to start. And think of the potential alternatives:
The Phillies may be in a market for a shortstop next year, with the declining Jimmy Rollins also in his contract year this season.
What if Derek Jeter hits .240 and the Yankees miss the playoffs? Does the Yankees signing Reyes still seem so unlikely?
What if David Wright decides to become a free agent right around the time the Yankees are ready to shift A-Rod to DH? Oh, and Wright also would be a big upgrade at third for the Phillies.
Think the Yankees and Phillies wouldn't love to stick it to the Mets and pilfer their biggest names? The Phillies are so eager to show up the Mets that they even signed Luis Castillo after the Mets cut him. The Yankees turned all-time Mets Darryl Strawberry and Dwight Gooden into important Yankees as well.
Reyes is no Tom Seaver, but at least M. Donald Grant didn't send The Franchise to the Yankees.
Last year, the Twins signed Joe Mauer to a huge contract. Now Mauer is hurt and his catching days may be numbered. It's unclear whether Mauer will justify his contract.
But the Twins realized they had no choice but to retain the face of their franchise. Now, even though the Twins have the worst record in baseball, per-game attendance is barely down from last year, when the Twins debuted their new ballpark. Twins fans know that the previously cheap team can now hold on to their stars.
Meanwhile, Rays' attendance and TV ratings are plummeting, even though the team is percentage points out of first place. But the Rays said goodbye to Matt Garza, Carlos Pena and Rafael Soriano. And they refused to give Carl Crawford money to Carl Crawford. Rays fans know that whatever success the team has will be short-lived because they can't hold on to their good players.
Fred Wilpon wanted to bring back the era of the 1950s by modeling Citi Field after Ebbets Field. Instead, he may end up bringing back the era of the late 1970s, when Grant's unwillingness to pay his stars turned Shea Stadium into "Grant's Tomb."
The most successful big-market teams use their payroll advantage to overpay some players. The Yankees, with their $200 million payroll, can land a CC Sabathia by giving him tens of millions of dollars more than any other team. A.J. Burnett got a contract that seemed crazy at the time and seems crazier now. But the signings of Sabathia and Burnett, along with Mark Teixeira (who appears to have gotten market value), produced a World Series title for the Yankees in their first season.
The Red Sox and the Phillies have had plenty of questionable signings- John Lackey and Raul Ibanez, just to name two recent ones. Cliff Lee is 32 with a five-year contract. What are the odds that he will be great all five years?
But the willingness of the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies to spend big on several players, knowing that not all of them will justify their investment, that most if not all will offer diminishing returns over the life of their long contracts, results in these teams being perennial contenders.
The Mets have shown all too often that simply spending lots of money is no guarantee of success. But they have also shown that overpaying for stars can quickly bring a team to the brink of the World Series.
The Mets won 71 games in 2004. Over the next two offseasons, they signed Pedro Martinez, Carlos Beltran and Billy Wagner and traded for Carlos Delgado. In 2006, the Mets won 97 games.
Beltran finished fourth in MVP voting that season and Delgado finished twelfth. Wagner was sixth in Cy Young voting. Pedro made the All-Star team in 2006 before he got hurt.
Combining these expensive pieces with another acquisition, Paul Lo Duca, and homegrown stars Wright and Reyes (who both were top 10 in MVP voting in 2006) got the Mets to Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS.
Many Met fans probably agree with Wilpon that the Beltran signing didn't pay off in the long run. As much as I like Pedro, his signing was not a success - he was only healthy for a year and a half out of four. Both Wagner and Delgado saw their Met tenures cut short by injuries.
One could argue that all four of these players failed to return full value on their contracts. But thanks to this combination of players, the Mets were a top contender for three seasons - 2006-8.
Say what you will about Beltran, but the Mets would not have been a contender in those years without him.
And Fred Wilpon regrets signing him.
Beltran is a Scott Boras client who probably wanted to leave the Mets even before the latest mess. The Mets are unlikely to retain him at anything approaching a reasonable value.
But Reyes is a much different case. The Mets may well have to overpay for him, but what the Mets consistently fail to realize is that it's better to overpay for a great player than try to save money by signing a lesser light to a still-big contract.
Two years ago, there were a couple of power-hitting left fielders on the free agent market. The Mets got Jason Bay for $66 million while the Cardinals got Matt Holliday for $120 million. Holliday didn't seem to be twice as good as Bay, so it looked like the Mets got a good deal. But as of now, Bay is almost worthless, while Holliday is a perennial MVP candidate on a pennant contender.
After the 2008 season, the Mets might have signed Derek Lowe for $60 million. Instead, they signed Oliver Perez for $36 million. Lowe has not been that great with the Braves and this year he has been charged with a DUI. But Lowe won 31 games with the Braves in 2009-10. During those years, Perez won three.
If the Mets had spent more money on Lowe instead of less on Perez, things could have been a lot different the last two seasons.
Yes, the 2011 Mets show the perils of overpaying too many players. But if you're going to overpay anyone, Reyes and Wright, two regular All-Stars when healthy who are still under 30, are a good place to start. And think of the potential alternatives:
The Phillies may be in a market for a shortstop next year, with the declining Jimmy Rollins also in his contract year this season.
What if Derek Jeter hits .240 and the Yankees miss the playoffs? Does the Yankees signing Reyes still seem so unlikely?
What if David Wright decides to become a free agent right around the time the Yankees are ready to shift A-Rod to DH? Oh, and Wright also would be a big upgrade at third for the Phillies.
Think the Yankees and Phillies wouldn't love to stick it to the Mets and pilfer their biggest names? The Phillies are so eager to show up the Mets that they even signed Luis Castillo after the Mets cut him. The Yankees turned all-time Mets Darryl Strawberry and Dwight Gooden into important Yankees as well.
Reyes is no Tom Seaver, but at least M. Donald Grant didn't send The Franchise to the Yankees.
Last year, the Twins signed Joe Mauer to a huge contract. Now Mauer is hurt and his catching days may be numbered. It's unclear whether Mauer will justify his contract.
But the Twins realized they had no choice but to retain the face of their franchise. Now, even though the Twins have the worst record in baseball, per-game attendance is barely down from last year, when the Twins debuted their new ballpark. Twins fans know that the previously cheap team can now hold on to their stars.
Meanwhile, Rays' attendance and TV ratings are plummeting, even though the team is percentage points out of first place. But the Rays said goodbye to Matt Garza, Carlos Pena and Rafael Soriano. And they refused to give Carl Crawford money to Carl Crawford. Rays fans know that whatever success the team has will be short-lived because they can't hold on to their good players.
Fred Wilpon wanted to bring back the era of the 1950s by modeling Citi Field after Ebbets Field. Instead, he may end up bringing back the era of the late 1970s, when Grant's unwillingness to pay his stars turned Shea Stadium into "Grant's Tomb."
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Astros' Mess Shows Why Mets Shouldn't Trade Carlos Beltran to Yankees
This weekend, the Mets are seeing what could happen after you trade off your stars.
Longtime Astros Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt, dealt at last year's trading deadline, are now key components of first-place teams, while the Astros have the worst record in the NL and are drawing fewer than 25,000 fans per game.
It will be years before we know if the Astros got enough back to justify trading two longtime faces of the franchise. So far, it looks like they ended up with only one impact young player, Brett Wallace, who was acquired for Anthony Gose, who came to the Astros in the Oswalt deal.
Meanwhile, Berkman is off to an MVP-caliber start with the division rival Cardinals, while Oswalt is part of the "rotation for the ages" in Philadelphia.
Berkman won't keep up his league-leading OPS of 1.131. And Oswalt is currently on the DL. But it's reasonable to expect these players to play key roles in the pennant race while the Astros play out the string before empty seats.
Sure, the Mets are likely to get more for the much younger Jose Reyes than the Astros got for their older stars. And while Reyes' fast start is thankfully causing more people to realize that trading him will set this franchise back for years, it makes sense to trade an older player like Carlos Beltran who is very likely to leave the Mets anyway.
But if the Mets trade Beltran, they'd better get a really good prospect in return. The Post's Mike Vaccaro speculates on whether Beltran could get traded to the Yankees. Vaccaro concludes:
A one-sided trade between the two would be perilous. Is Beltran worth the risk? For the Yankees, absolutely. For the Mets? They might be better off winning than having to face that question.
I agree on the Mets' part. It would be bad enough to see the Yankees get back to the World Series. But to get back with Beltran playing a key role would be intolerable.
But what if Sandy Alderson could land one of the Yankees' top prospects for Beltran? Someone like Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos or Dellin Betances? I still wouldn't want to see that move, but I'd have to concede that it would probably be worth it for the Mets in the long run.
But I can't imagine Brian Cashman agreeing that a Beltran trade is "absolutely worth the risk" if it involves dealing Montero, who, if traded, would only be part of a Cliff Lee-type package, not for a Beltran rental, or either of the two pitchers, currently considered untouchable.
When the Yankees traded for Berkman last year, they gave up Mark Melancon and Jimmy Paredes. Melancon is now the Astros' fill-in closer with Brandon Lyon on the DL and Paredes is their sixth-ranked prospect, with a three-star ranking out of five, according to Baseball Prospectus.
Doesn't sound like a lot for Berkman, but it's probably along the lines of what the Yankees would want to give the Mets for Beltran.
If I were the Yankees, I wouldn't want to give up a top prospect for Beltran, but from the Mets' point of view, if that's the case, better to hold on to Beltran than to watch him help a rival in the postseason while you are trying to put together a rebuilding plan on the cheap.
Longtime Astros Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt, dealt at last year's trading deadline, are now key components of first-place teams, while the Astros have the worst record in the NL and are drawing fewer than 25,000 fans per game.
It will be years before we know if the Astros got enough back to justify trading two longtime faces of the franchise. So far, it looks like they ended up with only one impact young player, Brett Wallace, who was acquired for Anthony Gose, who came to the Astros in the Oswalt deal.
Meanwhile, Berkman is off to an MVP-caliber start with the division rival Cardinals, while Oswalt is part of the "rotation for the ages" in Philadelphia.
Berkman won't keep up his league-leading OPS of 1.131. And Oswalt is currently on the DL. But it's reasonable to expect these players to play key roles in the pennant race while the Astros play out the string before empty seats.
Sure, the Mets are likely to get more for the much younger Jose Reyes than the Astros got for their older stars. And while Reyes' fast start is thankfully causing more people to realize that trading him will set this franchise back for years, it makes sense to trade an older player like Carlos Beltran who is very likely to leave the Mets anyway.
But if the Mets trade Beltran, they'd better get a really good prospect in return. The Post's Mike Vaccaro speculates on whether Beltran could get traded to the Yankees. Vaccaro concludes:
A one-sided trade between the two would be perilous. Is Beltran worth the risk? For the Yankees, absolutely. For the Mets? They might be better off winning than having to face that question.
I agree on the Mets' part. It would be bad enough to see the Yankees get back to the World Series. But to get back with Beltran playing a key role would be intolerable.
But what if Sandy Alderson could land one of the Yankees' top prospects for Beltran? Someone like Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos or Dellin Betances? I still wouldn't want to see that move, but I'd have to concede that it would probably be worth it for the Mets in the long run.
But I can't imagine Brian Cashman agreeing that a Beltran trade is "absolutely worth the risk" if it involves dealing Montero, who, if traded, would only be part of a Cliff Lee-type package, not for a Beltran rental, or either of the two pitchers, currently considered untouchable.
When the Yankees traded for Berkman last year, they gave up Mark Melancon and Jimmy Paredes. Melancon is now the Astros' fill-in closer with Brandon Lyon on the DL and Paredes is their sixth-ranked prospect, with a three-star ranking out of five, according to Baseball Prospectus.
Doesn't sound like a lot for Berkman, but it's probably along the lines of what the Yankees would want to give the Mets for Beltran.
If I were the Yankees, I wouldn't want to give up a top prospect for Beltran, but from the Mets' point of view, if that's the case, better to hold on to Beltran than to watch him help a rival in the postseason while you are trying to put together a rebuilding plan on the cheap.
Monday, February 28, 2011
Classy move by Carlos Beltran
With all the denial surrounding the Mets right now (money issues won't affect the team, the Mets are a contender), it's refreshing to see someone associated with the team acknowledge a situation and take positive steps to rectify it. Carlos Beltran has decided to move from center to right field.
Apparently, Beltran was the one who approached Terry Collins about making the switch. So Beltran comes off well for initiating the move, while the new manager deserves credit for a smooth transition.
Compare this situation to last summer, when Beltran returned to the lineup. Jerry Manuel not only put Beltran back in center field, but batted him cleanup. Manuel's moves coincided with the Mets, eight games over .500 at the All-Star break, collapsing right after that. Beltran hit .204 in July and .227 in August with two homers - not exactly cleanup material. And he was clearly not his old self in center field.
At this point, it doesn't matter if Manuel or Beltran or both deserve blame for the poor decisions of last summer. In 2011, both Beltran and Collins deserve credit for helping this Met team make a fresh start and create some positive feelings around the team for a change.
***
Happy Birthday, Squawker Lisa!
Apparently, Beltran was the one who approached Terry Collins about making the switch. So Beltran comes off well for initiating the move, while the new manager deserves credit for a smooth transition.
Compare this situation to last summer, when Beltran returned to the lineup. Jerry Manuel not only put Beltran back in center field, but batted him cleanup. Manuel's moves coincided with the Mets, eight games over .500 at the All-Star break, collapsing right after that. Beltran hit .204 in July and .227 in August with two homers - not exactly cleanup material. And he was clearly not his old self in center field.
At this point, it doesn't matter if Manuel or Beltran or both deserve blame for the poor decisions of last summer. In 2011, both Beltran and Collins deserve credit for helping this Met team make a fresh start and create some positive feelings around the team for a change.
***
Happy Birthday, Squawker Lisa!
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Carlos Beltran, R.A. Dickey and thinking positively
You'd never know it from the way many people write about them, but the Mets have had a few bright spots this season. R.A. Dickey is one of the most amazing stories in years on the Mets or any other team. ESPN's Mark Simon even invented a new "metric," STAR (Story Above Replacement), to pay tribute to the Mets' knuckleballer.
Sometimes I wonder if good news on the Mets is so hard to come by because there is a fear of admitting that Omar Minaya ever did anything right. Such an admission could help upper management rationalize that Minaya is not doing such a bad job after all, so he deserves to remain as GM.
So I am inventing my own new metric, GMAR (General Manager Above Replacement), and making sure that, even with credit for Dickey, Omar's GMAR is too low for him to keep his job.
But while Omar needs to go, it's important to give him credit where credit is due. New management should build on what the Mets already have, not blow it all up and start over. Which brings us to Carlos Beltran, whose performance this weekend in Philadelphia suggests that it's time to rethink wondering how much salary the Mets would have to eat to get him off the team.
In Sunday's game, Beltran hit two homers, one from each side of the plate, and made a sensational diving catch to help assure that the Phillies would not clinch the division in front of the Mets. But Beltran's most important contribution may have come Saturday, when he slid in hard at second base, trying to take out Chase Utley in retaliation for Utley's hard slide Friday night.
Perhaps it's a sign of the negativity surrounding the Mets that on Sunday's pregame, Kevin Burkhardt compared Beltran to Shawn Estes, who infamously threw behind Roger Clemens rather than hitting him in retaliation for Clemens' broken bat insanity in the 2000 World Series. Burkhardt was not the only person to note that Beltran missed both Utley and shortstop Wilson Valdez, meaning that once again the Mets' response failed to match the original offense.
But unlike Estes, Beltran did all he could to "hit somebody," as Beltran later said he wanted to do. Utley's ability to jump out of the way should not detract from Beltran's effort, especially considering that Beltran went in with two bad knees.
Beltran might be one of the last players most fans would expect to be the one to step up and defend his teammate. Unfortunately, except for the injured Johan Santana, I'm not sure which player I would most expect to step up.
As Met announcers frequently noted, Utley's slide wasn't really dirty, but indicative of how hard the Phillies always play. Why don't the Mets always play that way? Which brings us to Jerry Manuel's MAR (Manager Above Replacement) which has certainly marred the Mets.
The Mets need some new players along with new management, but at least some of the current players are offering reason to hope* that next year will be better.
*(I was thinking about a Hope Above Replacement metric, but I didn't want Squawker Lisa to point out that the acronym would be HAR.)
Sometimes I wonder if good news on the Mets is so hard to come by because there is a fear of admitting that Omar Minaya ever did anything right. Such an admission could help upper management rationalize that Minaya is not doing such a bad job after all, so he deserves to remain as GM.
So I am inventing my own new metric, GMAR (General Manager Above Replacement), and making sure that, even with credit for Dickey, Omar's GMAR is too low for him to keep his job.
But while Omar needs to go, it's important to give him credit where credit is due. New management should build on what the Mets already have, not blow it all up and start over. Which brings us to Carlos Beltran, whose performance this weekend in Philadelphia suggests that it's time to rethink wondering how much salary the Mets would have to eat to get him off the team.
In Sunday's game, Beltran hit two homers, one from each side of the plate, and made a sensational diving catch to help assure that the Phillies would not clinch the division in front of the Mets. But Beltran's most important contribution may have come Saturday, when he slid in hard at second base, trying to take out Chase Utley in retaliation for Utley's hard slide Friday night.
Perhaps it's a sign of the negativity surrounding the Mets that on Sunday's pregame, Kevin Burkhardt compared Beltran to Shawn Estes, who infamously threw behind Roger Clemens rather than hitting him in retaliation for Clemens' broken bat insanity in the 2000 World Series. Burkhardt was not the only person to note that Beltran missed both Utley and shortstop Wilson Valdez, meaning that once again the Mets' response failed to match the original offense.
But unlike Estes, Beltran did all he could to "hit somebody," as Beltran later said he wanted to do. Utley's ability to jump out of the way should not detract from Beltran's effort, especially considering that Beltran went in with two bad knees.
Beltran might be one of the last players most fans would expect to be the one to step up and defend his teammate. Unfortunately, except for the injured Johan Santana, I'm not sure which player I would most expect to step up.
As Met announcers frequently noted, Utley's slide wasn't really dirty, but indicative of how hard the Phillies always play. Why don't the Mets always play that way? Which brings us to Jerry Manuel's MAR (Manager Above Replacement) which has certainly marred the Mets.
The Mets need some new players along with new management, but at least some of the current players are offering reason to hope* that next year will be better.
*(I was thinking about a Hope Above Replacement metric, but I didn't want Squawker Lisa to point out that the acronym would be HAR.)
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Is Oliver Perez trying to get himself released?
Last year, the big story with the Mets was how many of them ended up in the hospital. Now the big story is which Mets failed to go to the Walter Reed Hospital to visit with injured vets. Carlos Beltran and Luis Castillo at least offered explanations as to why they didn't go.
"I don't know who is creating this issue," Beltran said. "I had my own things to do, and I couldn't make it."
Beltran explained that he had a meeting involving his own charity and that he had previously visited a veterans hospital with Fred Wilpon.
Whether or not you accept Beltran's explanation probably depends on what one thinks of him in the first place. If you take him at his word, his heart is in the right place, but he didn't realize how his actions would look to management, fans and the media.
Or maybe he doesn't care. Beltran has reason to be fed up with Mets management after how they initially dealt with his injuries. And he has probably lost many of the fans for good. In the final year of Beltran's contract, expect him to be highly motivated to do well so that he can get a big new contract somewhere else.
Luis Castillo said that he missed the trip to Walter Reed because he was "squeamish." Now he knows how Met fans feel when they see his name in the lineup. If that is the real reason Castillo didn't go, then he certainly is clueless, but not necessarily someone who is not a team guy.
But if Castillo is fed up with the Mets, then he is even more clueless. Castillo probably wouldn't be on a big league roster were it not for his contract. If he has become a malcontent who thinks he should be starting, that is even more reason to get rid of him as soon as possible.
And then there's Oliver Perez. The days of Good Ollie and Bad Ollie are long gone - now there's only Bad Ollie, who didn't even try to come up with an excuse:
"I don't answer," Perez said, "anything about outside the stadium."
It's as if Perez' agent, Scott Boras, has been telling him what to say and do so that the Mets cut him loose. Knowing Boras, he thinks he can somehow parlay Perez' freedom into even more undeserved money.
Ultimately, this story comes down to the same old story for the Mets - they need to eat the contracts of Perez and Castillo. Beltran is more complicated, since he actually has a chance of regaining at least some of his skills.
But the first objective of the offseason must be to make sure that we don't have endure any more such stories about Perez and Castillo, because they will finally be gone.
Check out Squawker Lisa's take on the Mets' visit to Walter Reed in The Faster Times.
"I don't know who is creating this issue," Beltran said. "I had my own things to do, and I couldn't make it."
Beltran explained that he had a meeting involving his own charity and that he had previously visited a veterans hospital with Fred Wilpon.
Whether or not you accept Beltran's explanation probably depends on what one thinks of him in the first place. If you take him at his word, his heart is in the right place, but he didn't realize how his actions would look to management, fans and the media.
Or maybe he doesn't care. Beltran has reason to be fed up with Mets management after how they initially dealt with his injuries. And he has probably lost many of the fans for good. In the final year of Beltran's contract, expect him to be highly motivated to do well so that he can get a big new contract somewhere else.
Luis Castillo said that he missed the trip to Walter Reed because he was "squeamish." Now he knows how Met fans feel when they see his name in the lineup. If that is the real reason Castillo didn't go, then he certainly is clueless, but not necessarily someone who is not a team guy.
But if Castillo is fed up with the Mets, then he is even more clueless. Castillo probably wouldn't be on a big league roster were it not for his contract. If he has become a malcontent who thinks he should be starting, that is even more reason to get rid of him as soon as possible.
And then there's Oliver Perez. The days of Good Ollie and Bad Ollie are long gone - now there's only Bad Ollie, who didn't even try to come up with an excuse:
"I don't answer," Perez said, "anything about outside the stadium."
It's as if Perez' agent, Scott Boras, has been telling him what to say and do so that the Mets cut him loose. Knowing Boras, he thinks he can somehow parlay Perez' freedom into even more undeserved money.
Ultimately, this story comes down to the same old story for the Mets - they need to eat the contracts of Perez and Castillo. Beltran is more complicated, since he actually has a chance of regaining at least some of his skills.
But the first objective of the offseason must be to make sure that we don't have endure any more such stories about Perez and Castillo, because they will finally be gone.
Check out Squawker Lisa's take on the Mets' visit to Walter Reed in The Faster Times.
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